Starbase by the Numbers: 3,000 Jobs or 10,000?

If you've followed coverage of Starbase Louisiana, you've probably seen two job numbers: 3,000 and 10,000. They're both real, but they don't measure the same thing. Here's how to read them.

What different sources say

The number that's in a contract

Only one figure is legally binding: the 3,000 direct jobs in SpaceX's agreement with the Industrial Development Board of Vermilion Parish. The Current's Oct. 2 report on that agreement lays out a staged schedule, counted from 12 months after all launch-pad permits are issued:

Other terms, as reported:

• Full-time jobs only count if they pay at least 150% of Louisiana's average wage.
• Employees transferred from other states count toward the targets.
• Hiring 60% to 80% of workers from surrounding communities is a goal, not a legal requirement.
• SpaceX reports its own employment numbers. The board may audit them each year but cannot publicly release the data.

The Illuminator reported the minimum as 3,000 permanent jobs by 2035.

What if SpaceX falls short?

If SpaceX misses its targets two years in a row, it owes a penalty: the shortfall percentage times 1.8 times that year's tax savings, according to The Current. Missing by more than half means paying back all of that year's tax savings. The agreement's own example: a 10% miss with $100 million in savings equals an $18 million penalty.

What the numbers don't tell us

• Construction jobs aren't in these counts. Building 10 launch pads, a port and a power plant will employ many people for years, but we didn't find an official construction estimate.
• The clock starts with permits. Because the schedule begins after all pad permits are issued, permit delays push every target back.
• Public verification is limited. Since the board can't release SpaceX's employment reports, residents may not be able to check progress directly.

Read next: what Starbase means for Lafayette and UL Lafayette and how the tax deal works.

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• Startups
• Lafayette